It’s been a fairly tumultuous few years for Pokemon. While the franchise remains one of the most recognizable, and most profitable, performance issues andall-time-low reviewsfor Scarlet and Violet have left a bit of a sour taste in long-time fans' mouths.
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The knock-on effect of this has been felt in the Pokemon TCG, with stores we spoke to reporting that sales have “tanked” since theScarlet and Violetera was ushered in.
Stores Report Fall In Sales
Up to 68% in some instances
As part of our report, we spoke to 31 stores across the UK, US, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada and Australia, with the vast majority sharing similar sentiments — Pokemon Scarlet and Violet TCG sets have been harder to sell. Of the 31 stores we spoke to and surveyed, 27 reported that sales had either fallen or they were having difficulty shiftingPokemon Scarlet and Violet TCGstock.
Alex Irastorza fromA Plus Collectiblesin the US told us that it’s “almost impossible to make money selling Pokemon cards” and that recent sets have required a “fire sale,” with the store operating at a loss to sell through certain inventory.
Of the 31 stores we spoke to and surveyed, 27 reported that sales had either fallen or they were having difficulty shifting Pokemon Scarlet and Violet TCG stock.
The issue of struggling sales stretches as far as Australia, withTrainer Hubsaying that pre-orders have fallen by at least 50%. Alongside this, sales of the latest holiday set, Paldean Fates, were 60% down compared to the previous year’s holiday set, Crown Zenith. They told us that “series popularity is having a bigger impact than economics.” Three other stores reported decreases of 68%, 35% and 25%. One store went a step further, telling us they would sell around 300 booster boxes during the launch weeks of Sword and Shield sets but only 150 during the launch of Scarlet and Violet sets. Another told us they made €770,000 in 2021, €251,000 in 2022 and €126,000 in 2023, and while this isn’t all attributed to Pokemon, it played a big part.
Phil fromCrimsCardsin the UK told us that “stock is readily available from distributors for months and months, whereas during SwSh, it would disappear instantly,” with a second store adding that distributors “had to heavily discount products to get rid of all of it.“Endo Collectstold us that the distributor’s discounts are occasionally so severe that “if I had the financial ability to do so, I would order millions.”
It’s not all bad, everyone agrees the nostalgia-drivenScarlet & Violet 151set sold well.
So, Why The Massive Decline?
One of the most prominent issues respondents felt was the current state of the world economy. With thecost of living still increasing, coupled with higher inflation rates, many consumers have less disposable income than they did a few years ago. This is compounded further by the fact that, in late 2022,The Pokemon Company announcedan increase in the RRP, with a standard pack of Pokemon cards rising from $3.99 to $4.49, or roughly 13%.
The company did aim to “continue providing a positive Pokemon TCG experience and value” by including three guaranteed holofoil cards per pack, which had never been the case before. However, this ultimately ended up with the devaluation of holofoil cards, rather than an increase in pack value. The negative impact of the price increase waspredicted on forumswhen it was first announced, and the sentiment was shared by store owners who told us it “was not accepted well”.
Surprisingly, however, a greater supply of the Pokemon TCG seemed to be the biggest sticking point, even more than the economy. One store owner mentioned that “everything is printed into oblivion” and, therefore, “sets and cards aren’t worth anything.” Another told us, “They [The Pokemon Company] need to print less.“Mothership Gamesbelieves that as supply has drastically risen since the pandemic, the ‘scalpability’ of the Pokemon TCG has dropped, and opportunists are now unable to make money from buying and selling ‘rare’ products. As a store, Mothership’s sales have fallen from around 200 units per release to around 100-120.
Scarlet and Violet’s latest sets were called “relatively bad”, “lazy”, “a lot less special and interesting”, and “dull”.
The increased supply of products means that the value proposition of the Pokemon TCG has dropped. With the decrease in single prices, “chase cards” aren’t as valuable, and therefore, the potential return on investment for collectors and pack openers is way down. One store questioned why consumers would spend €130 on a booster box (36 packs) when the most expensive card they can pull is worth no more than €50, and it’s improbable they’d even get it.
Michael Fone fromHobby Addictspredicted that, in order to collect a full set, consumers would “probably have to open 4+ cases”,around $2920 worth, “and at the end, they’d have a massive amount of bulk that is only worth pennies.” A problem that I’m all too familiar with myself, as I sit here with stacks of worthless bulk on my desk.
Given that the most expensive complete set from Scarlet and Violet isestimated to be worth$900, and the average across all sets is around $550, consumers are having a tough time justifying opening product as now, more than ever, it makes sense just to buy single cards.Obsidian Flamesis a prime example of this. Booster Boxes for the set cost around $100-$130, or you can skip the bulk, skip the RNG and pick upa complete master set on eBayfor between $300-$400. One store owner told us that sales of single cards were up over 200%, despite boxed products being down, indicating that consumers are, in fact, opting out of opening packs in favor of purchasing singles. This is also partly aided by the uptick in competitive TCG players.
Not only has the overabundance of stock meant that the value of Pokemon Cards in the Scarlet and Violet era has dropped, but competition for sales has become tougher, with smaller, local TCG stores suffering the biggest repercussions. During the Sword and Shield era, when stock was more scarce, larger TCG stores would often sell their entire stock, leaving customers to search out smaller independent stores.
However, with the increased supply, customers are returning to the more well-known stores to purchase their products. While we almost got universal agreement from small stores that Pokemon is becoming harder to sell, we did get comment from one of the UK’s biggest TCG retailers,Magic Madhouse, who told us that “Pokemon Scarlet and Violet [TCG Sets] are performing better than Sword and Shield’s”.
This comes as no surprise, as some of these larger stores sell product for “lower than the price we have to pay our suppliers”, we were told, a sentiment that was echoed by a handful of different store owners we spoke to. This has meant that stores have had to operate selling “at razor-thin margins that cannot be sustained.” One store indicated that margins had dropped to as low as 7% on their Pokemon TCG products, meaning that selling a $120 booster box would net them about $8.40; and this is before postage costs or any other associated overheads.
Stores have had to operate selling “at razor-thin margins that cannot be sustained.”
Supply, value and the economy weren’t the only factors contributing to a decline in sales, though. During our conversations with store owners, Scarlet and Violet’s latest sets were called “relatively bad”, “lazy”, “a lot less special and interesting”, and “dull”, with too much “recycled artwork” and “terrible design choices”. This has meant that not only are collectors unlikely to get value from their packs, but there’s also a consensus that they’re just not as exciting to open. Half of our survey respondents said that recent expansions aren’t as good or desirable. It is worth noting, though, that not all store owners felt this way, with Andrew Bremner fromBremnerTCGstating that the additions of “silver borders” and “ARs in every set” are “really good things”.
It all adds up to what seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy for Pokemon. More expensive sets and higher supply during a sticky economic period, coupled with disappointing, lower-value cards, have led to decreased demand for the TCG, and store owners have been feeling it.
We reached out to The Pokemon Company for comment but didn’t receive a response.
Single Prices Follow Similar Pattern
As I alluded to earlier, it’s not only sealed products that are struggling to sell, as prices for single cards have dropped significantly. I analyzed the 25 most expensive cards from the Sword and Shield era of the Pokemon TCGusing Collectr(a card market tracking app) and found that 23 of the 25 cards had dropped in value from their 12-month peaks. Some cards have dropped by over £50, and if you bought all 25 at their peak and sold them now, you’d be £662 ($850) worse off, a decline of nearly 20%. This is in line with our discussions with store owners, as 40% of them felt popularity in the Pokemon TCG was waning.
That being said, this drop-off is not wholly unexpected. During the height of COVID, the Pokemon TCG saw a massive resurgence, exacerbated by the fact thatPokemoncelebrated its 25th anniversary, and the companyreleased some really exciting setsas part of this. There was a furore around this time as people were stuck inside looking for ways to spend their money and used nostalgia to help ease the pain of the pandemic. However, the sheer decline in sales for smaller stores was unforeseen.
